David Manheim
Researcher, Decision Theorist, and Public Policy Wonk in Israel
About
David Manheim is the founder and head of research and policy at the Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER), as well as a visiting lecturer at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, in addition to his full-time work as a happily married father of four wonderful kids.
After David completed his undergraduate degree in mathematics, he worked in equity derivatives risk at an investment bank, then built models for reinsurance terrorism risk. He then decided to pivot his career to more altruistic endeavors, and completed a PhD at the Rand School of Public Policy focusing on risk analysis and decision theory.
His research now focuses on policy research and advocacy, including research for and with a variety of other organizations on a wide-ranging list of topics including mitigating risks from artificial intelligence, the future of biological technologies and pandemic prevention, systemic risks, and geopolitical and technological forecasting.
Writing & Projects
- arXiv Papers (AI Policy, Goodhart's law, etc.)
- Philosophical issues (via PhilPapers)
- Metric Design
- Exploring Cooperation (Substack)
- Other writing (Substack)
- 2 Years Ago News (Substack)
If you'd like to be in touch or collaborate on anything, you can find me via the links above.
NDA Transparency
The below is a complete list of NDAs and other information restrictions David is under, as far as he is aware.(If this section is removed, it implies there are addition non-disclosable NDAs.)
- NDA from Risk Management Solutions regarding proprietary material developed while employed there (2009-2011)
- 18 U.S. Code § 798 restriction and SF 312 Non-disclosure Agreement on classified information while at RAND (2012-2018)
- Restriction on sharing RAND internal publications, unpublished reports, and information during employment (2012-2018)
- ISITAustin.org Mutual NDA regarding hybrid forecasting research, replication research, and related RFPs (2018)
- Multiple NDAs related to superforecasting and various clients, via Good Judgement Inc (2018-2022)
- Confidentiality and non-use agreement with JHUAPL related to the MTAIR project (2019)
- Google NDA relaated to a Ribbonfarm article and corporate strategy
- Trilligent NDA related to an expert consultation on AI & CBRNE (2024)
- Restriction on sharing RAND internal information during contracted work (2024-2026)
- GovAI NDA for Sensitive Materials related to CBRN risk modeling (2026)
- NIST AISI Consortium "CRADA" for nondisclosure of properly labelled proprietary information shared by other consortium members (2025, added retrospectively May 2026)